Paul Rosser 
We had four days with showers in October 2024. We rarely hear the ‘Rain’ word these days, everything is about ‘Showers’.
In November we had 14.5mm compared to the average over the last 130 years of 40.7mm. The Year to Date (YTD) is just 296.5mm at the end of October. Given the combined monthly long-term averages for November & December of 46.0mm, it is not looking good as we enter our summer.
How does the compare with other years?
2024 14.5mm 296.5mm (YTD)
2023 17.5mm 463.5mm
2022 71.0mm 456.0mm
2021 48.5mm 449.0mm
2020 53.5mm 456.0mm
2019 25.0mm 329.5mm
2018 14.5mm 282.5mm
2017 19.5mm 464.0mm
2016 55.0mm 598.0mm
2015 2.0mm 393.0mm
2014 NIL 345.0mm
2013 9.0mm 469.0mm
2012 14.0mm 476.0mm
2011 13.0mm N.A.
Not our driest month in the last thirteen years but our second driest YTD.
While our rainfall was below average our temperatures, both night & day were above average for October. Out stream flows have been below average. Soil moisture is well below average especially at one metre depth. Seas around Australia are above average & have been for some time.
The last two months of the year will be average but don’t expect too much rain as the long-term averages for November & December are quite low. We will be unlikely to get to 350.0mm annual rainfall this year which signals lots of watering of gardens & fruit trees this summer. A rule of thumb for watering is ‘if your finger feels moist at 75mm, don’t water but if it is dry ,,,,water & lots’. Jon Lamb from the ABC also feels plant leaves for signs of moisture or dryness & this works for him. In the bushfire season moisture in leaves is essential in lowering ignition risk in a fire. On a Catastrophic Fire Forecast day wet down your garden early morning & at mid=day to reduce ignition chances in case of fire.
The State of the Climate Report 2024 has just been released & it is of concern. The main points are:
- Temperatures have risen 1.5 degrees since 1901 resulting in longer fire seasons, sea level rises & the chance of increased severe rainfall events, like in Spain in the past week,
- The earth is sick because of humans’ obsession with fossil fuels & the point of no return is less than seven years away,
- Three systems have to be worked on to get the required result, Economic, Social & Engineering/Technology, if we are to achieve a satisfactory environmental outcomes by 2030.
- Because of higher sea temperature & melting ice flows our modelling is failing as our ocean currents that affect our weather are changing, with the potential for some to go into reverse with dire consequences,
- Our sea levels have risen by 22cms since 1901,
- Australia’s climate is visibly changing with the north & north east getting wetter with more regular flooding & the south heading into prolonged drought conditions,
- The number of deaths from heat exhaustion are increasing as temperatures continue to rise & the number of heat events increase each summer.
In short, the world is in strife right now, it’s getting worse & the time for restoration is almost past.
Hopefully, with the Tropical Cyclone Season now with us, a couple of nice 25mm rain events may happen over summer. We can certainly do with a good news story over the next three months.
Regards,
Paul
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